Identifying Beans From A Pod On A Tree

I studied statistics and probability in the UNAM, Faculty of Sciences. That taught me that the probability of dropping a particular face by throwing a die, is sixth (sixth). So then, if I shot six times, should go one side at a time. However, it is that it does not happen when you play to throw a dice. Every shot is independent and given

system, for example, has no memory of previous shots. Then, I explained, the likelihood tends to be true in large numbers

, that is, when you do thousands and thousands of shots. Hence, by reasons not understand, the system appears to be governed by the probabilities calculated precisely. That is, for many, too many shots, it seems there "memory? of previous events. I really can not think why this happens. What I've begun to suspect is that the probability and its study is simply a way of trying to explain random events and assign values \u200b\u200bto the likelihood of dropping a specific value (or throw dice, playing cards, roulette, etc.), gives us more certainty that the world is intelligible, but is really an illusion. Basically the likelihood does not seem very useful. I can think of, for example, that if a roulette game (the 36 numbers zero and double zero), are for people who have a lifetime in the game (could be happy actuaries estimating life span of numbers as if they were the population). When shot many times in the roulette ball, comes one of those numbers and in principle I have 1 / 37 chance (if we have a single zero roulette) that leave the number you chose. It turns out that one of the numbers will come out by force and as we were, the system "roulette" in any case bears no memory of previous shots are totally independent events. Then the probability collapses to zero in 36 of 37 numbers and collapses to 1, while for the winning shot. How can that be? Could it be that God plays dice? Every day I am more convinced that the theory of probability is a really fun, but is used in many fields. For example, in insurance, the actuaries estimate the probabilities of life of all people living in the country and to make insurance. But the reality is that these calculations only seem to make sense when talking about large populations, but in the end, individuals themselves may die at various ages without any chance to even come close to the date of death. If we think the latter, we see that even in great numbers
give us any certainty the likelihood of events.




seems to me something fishy here.